Brown P. T., J. Moreno-Cruz, H. Saunders, Z. Hausfather, S. J. Davis, F. Tong, K. Caldeira (20XX) Net economic impact of UN global warming mitigation targets. Submitted.

Brown, P. T., K. Caldeira (20XX) Skillful empirical prediction of unforced global temperature variability several years in advance. Submitted.

Caldeira, K., P. T. Brown (2018) Reduced emissions through climate damage to the economy. PNAS, doi:10.1073/pnas.1819605116

Brown, P. T., M. Stolpe, K. Caldeira (2018) Assumptions for Emergent Constraints. Nature, doi:10.1038/nature25450

• Blog post on research.

Brown, P. T., K. Caldeira (2017) Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget. Nature, doi:10.1038/nature24672.

• Blog post on research.

• Stanford EE-CS colloquium presentation on research.

Brown, P. T., Y. Ming, W. Li, S. A. Hill (2017) Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming. Nature Climate Change, doi:0.1038/nclimate3381.

• AGU talk summarizing the research

Brown, P. T., W. Li, J. H. Jiang, H. Su (2016) Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/2016GL071442.

• Blog post on the research.

Brown, P. T. (2016) Reporting on global warming: A study in headlines, Physics Today, doi:10.1063/PT.3.3310.

• ‘Director’s cut’ blog post.

Brown, P. T. (2016) What do historical temperature records tell us about natural variability in global temperature?, Climanosco, 24 Aug. 2016.

• placed 2nd overall in the Climanosco launch challenge)

Brown, P. T., M. S. Lozier, R. Zhang, W. Li (2016) The necessity of cloud feedback for a basin-scale Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/2016GL068303.

• Blog post on the research.

Brown, P.T., W. Li, J.H. Jiang, H. Su (2016) Unforced surface air temperature variability and its contrasting relationship with the anomalous TOA energy flux at local and global spatial scales. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0384.1.

• Technical blog post on the research.

• Plain English blog post on the research.

Brown, P.T., W. Li, E.C. Cordero, S.A. Mauget (2015) Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise. Scientific Reports, doi:10.1038/srep09957.

• Blog post on the research.

Brown, P.T., W. Li, S. P. Xie (2015) Regions of Significant Influence on Unforced Global Mean Surface Temperature Variability in Climate Models. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, doi: 10.1002/2014JD022576.

Brown, P.T., W. Li, L. Li, Y. Ming (2014) Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Contribution to Unforced Decadal Global Temperature Variability in Climate Models. Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1002/2014GL060625.

• Blog post on the research.

Foster, G., P.T. Brown (2014) Time and Tide: The Analysis of Sea Level Time Series. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2224-3.

Brown, P.T., E.C. Cordero, S.A. Mauget (2012) Reproduction of 20th Century Intradecadal to Multidecadal Surface Temperature Variability in Radiatively Forced Coupled Climate Models. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, doi:10.1029/2011JD016864.

Mauget S.A., E.C. Cordero, P.T. Brown (2011) Evaluating Modeled Intra- to Multidecadal Climate Variability Using Running Mann-Whitney Z Statistics. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00211.1.