Patrick T. Brown

Head of Climate Analytics
Interactive Brokers

PatrickTBrown.org @PatrickTBrown31 ptbrown31@gmail.com Google Scholar ORCID

Biography

Dr. Brown is a PhD climate scientist and meteorologist. He is the Head of Climate Analytics at Interactive Brokers, where his work focuses on the information discovery and risk-transfer applications of prediction markets in weather, climate, and natural disasters.

He has published scientific papers in Nature, PNAS, and Nature Climate Change, as well as many other journals, and his research and commentary have appeared in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, The Economist, CNBC, CNN, The BBC, The Washington Post, NPR, Newsweek, The Guardian, The Atlantic, Foreign Policy, and The Los Angeles Times, among other venues.

Education

Carnegie Institution for Science at Stanford University (2017 – 2019)
Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Department of Global Ecology
Duke University (2012 – 2016)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences
San José State University (2009 – 2012)
Master of Science (MS), Department of Meteorology and Climate Science
University of Wisconsin – Madison (2004 – 2008)
Bachelor of Science (BS), Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

Professional Experience and Affiliations

Trend Analytics, Interactive Brokers
- Head of Climate Analytics, March 2025 – Present
- Design, pricing, and fair-value modeling of weather, climate, and natural-hazard event contracts listed on ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated exchange, and development of their risk-transfer applications with insurance and reinsurance partners
The Breakthrough Institute
- Senior Fellow, March 2025 – Present
- Co-director, Climate and Energy Program, May 2022 – February 2025
Johns Hopkins University
- Adjunct Faculty (Lecturer), Energy Policy and Climate Program, January 2022 – September 2025
Wildfire Interdisciplinary Research Center (WIRC), San José State University
- Visiting Research Professor, August 2022 – Present
- Climate Scientist, August 2020 – August 2022
San José State University
- Assistant Professor, Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, August 2019 – August 2022
ClimateAI
- Innovation Lead, March 2018 – July 2019
Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford University
- Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Department of Global Ecology, 2017 – 2019
- Advisor: Ken Caldeira
Duke University
- Research Assistant, August 2012 – December 2016
- Dissertation: The magnitude and mechanisms of unforced variability in global surface temperature (video summary)
- Committee: Wenhong Li (Advisor), M. Susan Lozier, Drew Shindell, Paul Baker, Yi Ming
NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)
- Graduate Fellowship Program Intern, summers 2014 and 2016
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)
- Research Associate, summer 2015
Environmental Resources Management (ERM)
- Staff Scientist, Climate Modeling Adviser, October 2014 – February 2015
San José State University
- Research Assistant, August 2009 – August 2012
- Master's Thesis: Reproduction of Twentieth Century Intradecadal to Multidecadal Surface Temperature Variability in Radiatively Forced Coupled Climate Models
Climate Clock Initiative
- Climate Science Advisor, April 2011 – August 2011
Weather Central, LLC / MyWeather, LLC
- Forecaster, Graphics Technician, Customer Support, Market Research, and Data Entry, December 2008 – August 2009
NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC)
- Meteorology Intern, summer 2007
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)
- Atmospheric Science Intern, summer 2006

Event Contract Design and Risk-Transfer Products

Contracts designed, priced, or specified at Interactive Brokers for listing on ForecastEx.

Live Hurricane wind gust contracts (2026). Storm-specific contracts on peak 3-second wind gust exceedance at point locations, settling on Reask Metryc wind footprints, designed with reinsurance-market input to reduce basis risk relative to landfall contracts. Led the partnership with Reask as settlement data provider. First full listing-to-settlement run during Hurricane Isaias (October 2026).
Daily weather contracts (2025 – Present). Probability and fair-value models for daily high and low temperature contracts, launched in 10 US cities in November 2025 and since expanded to more than 20 US and international cities; terms and conditions for daily peak wind gust, mean wind, precipitation, hail, and thunderstorm-duration contracts.
Gridded daily weather settlement framework (2026, in development). Daily temperature, wind, and precipitation contracts resolving on the RTMA/URMA analyses at arbitrary locations.
Atlantic hurricane season and landfall contracts (2025 – 2026). Basin storm counts and major-hurricane landfall contracts, including a redesign into 10 contiguous US coastal regions selected using FEMA National Risk Index expected annual loss (September 2025).
Paris Agreement global temperature threshold contracts (2025).
US severe thunderstorm contracts on tornado, hail, and severe wind reports (2025).
Global crop yield contracts (2025).
Population-weighted heating and cooling degree-day contracts (2025).
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) substantial weakening contract (2026).
Electricity price contracts (2026), contract design contributions.

Publications

** Cited in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (2021 & 2022).

Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles

Brown, P. T., S. J. Strenfel, R. B. Bagley, C. B. Clements (2025) The potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California. Environmental Research Letters. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/adab86
- American Meteorological Society annual meeting presentation
- Operational version of the model
Brown, P. T., H. Hanley, A. Mahesh, C. Reed, S. J. Strenfel, S. J. Davis, A. K. Kochanski, C. B. Clements (2023) Climate warming increases extreme daily wildfire growth risk in California. Nature. doi: 10.1038/s41586-023-06444-3
- X thread on research
- Follow-up critique of high-impact scientific publishing in climate science
Brown, P. T. (2023) When the fraction of attributable risk does not inform the impact associated with anthropogenic climate change. Climatic Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-023-03591-4
- Blog post on research
- X thread on research
Brown, P. T., D. S. Farnham, K. Caldeira (2021) Meteorology of historical weekly wind and solar power resource droughts over western North America in ERA-5. SN Applied Sciences. doi: 10.1007/s42452-021-04794-z
- X thread on research
**Brown, P. T., H. Saunders (2020) Approximate calculations of the net economic impact of global warming mitigation targets under heightened damage estimates. PLOS ONE. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239520
- AGU interview on research
- X thread on research
- Primer: fundamental economics and the costs and benefits of addressing climate change
**Brown, P. T., J. Moreno-Cruz, K. Caldeira (2020) Break-even year: a concept for understanding intergenerational trade-offs in climate change mitigation policy. Environmental Research Communications. doi: 10.1088/2515-7620/abb413
- X thread on research
Brown, P. T., K. Caldeira (2020) Empirical prediction of short-term annual global temperature variability. Earth and Space Science, 7, e2020EA001116. doi: 10.1029/2020EA001116
- Live global temperature forecast
Caldeira, K., P. T. Brown (2019) Reduced emissions through climate damage to the economy. PNAS. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1819605116
**Brown, P. T., M. Stolpe, K. Caldeira (2018) Assumptions for emergent constraints. Nature. doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0638-5
- Blog post on research
**Brown, P. T., K. Caldeira (2017) Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget. Nature. doi: 10.1038/nature24672
- Blog post on research
- Stanford EE-CS colloquium presentation on research
**Brown, P. T., Y. Ming, W. Li, S. A. Hill (2017) Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming. Nature Climate Change. doi: 10.1038/nclimate3381
- AGU talk summarizing the research
**Brown, P. T., M. S. Lozier, R. Zhang, W. Li (2016) The necessity of cloud feedback for a basin-scale Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters. doi: 10.1002/2016GL068303
- Blog post on research
**Brown, P. T., W. Li, J. H. Jiang, H. Su (2016) Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans. Geophysical Research Letters. doi: 10.1002/2016GL071442
- Blog post on research
Brown, P. T., W. Li, J. H. Jiang, H. Su (2016) Unforced surface air temperature variability and its contrasting relationship with the anomalous TOA energy flux at local and global spatial scales. Journal of Climate. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0384.1
- Technical blog post on research
- Plain English blog post on research
**Brown, P. T., W. Li, S. P. Xie (2015) Regions of significant influence on unforced global mean surface temperature variability in climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. doi: 10.1002/2014JD022576
Brown, P. T., W. Li, E. C. Cordero, S. A. Mauget (2015) Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise. Scientific Reports. doi: 10.1038/srep09957
- Blog post on research
**Brown, P. T., W. Li, L. Li, Y. Ming (2014) Top-of-atmosphere radiative contribution to unforced decadal global temperature variability in climate models. Geophysical Research Letters. doi: 10.1002/2014GL060625
- Blog post on research
Foster, G., P. T. Brown (2014) Time and tide: the analysis of sea level time series. Climate Dynamics. doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2224-3
Brown, P. T., E. C. Cordero, S. A. Mauget (2012) Reproduction of 20th century intradecadal to multidecadal surface temperature variability in radiatively forced coupled climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. doi: 10.1029/2011JD016864
Mauget, S. A., E. C. Cordero, P. T. Brown (2011) Evaluating modeled intra- to multidecadal climate variability using running Mann-Whitney Z statistics. Journal of Climate. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00211.1

Preprints, Working Papers, and Reports

Brown, P. T. (2026) Improvement of daily temperature forecasts from a prediction market. EarthArXiv preprint. PDF
- IBKR Campus summary
- Live accuracy comparison
Brown, P. T. (2026) Economics of climate adaptation optimism. SocArXiv preprint. osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/m7tqu
Brown, P. T. (2024) Cost-effectiveness of large-scale fuel reduction for wildfire mitigation in California. The Breakthrough Institute, JSTOR. jstor.org/stable/resrep60733
- X thread on research

Manuscripts in Preparation

Brown, P. T. Extreme event attribution samples the extremes that climate change made more likely.
Brown, P. T., and coauthors at Reask. Reask neighborhood-scale wind data powers new live hurricane risk transfer contracts. For Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience.

Other Publications

Brown, P. T. (2016) Reporting on global warming: a study in headlines. Physics Today. doi: 10.1063/PT.3.3310
- “Director's cut” blog post
Brown, P. T. (2016) What do historical temperature records tell us about natural variability in global temperature? Climanosco, 24 August 2016. Placed 2nd overall in the Climanosco launch challenge.

Data Products, Software, and Websites

ForecastEx Weather, Climate & Energy Analysis and Decision Support (2026 – Present). Public site with daily market fair values, a running accuracy comparison of ForecastEx markets against 20 forecast systems, hurricane, wind, and severe weather pages, and resolution data. Linked from the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market Hub.
Daily weather fair-value engine (2025 – Present). Automated multi-model ensemble system producing probabilities for daily temperature, wind, and precipitation contracts, used for market making, strike setting, and trade surveillance.
Live global temperature forecast, based on Brown and Caldeira (2020).
Operational daily wildfire fire radiative power forecast for California, based on Brown et al. (2023, 2025).

Selected Writing

Invited Talks and Panels: Prediction Markets and Risk Transfer

FINRA Q3 Market Roadshow, New York (8/2026)
- Fireside panel on prediction markets with CME Group and FanDuel
Risk Market News Webinar (6/2026)
- 2026 Hurricane Season: Risk, Markets, Models
Kristiania University College, Oslo, Norway (10/2025)
- Reliable information generation in climate science and how prediction markets can help
Heterodox Academy Conference, New York (6/2025)
- Breaking the Social Feedback Loops that Constrain Climate Science
Energy Freedom Conference (4/2025)
- Panel with Sen. Mike Lee and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, presenting ForecastEx climate and weather markets

Conference Presentations

American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual Meeting
- The Potential for Fuel Reduction to Reduce Wildfire Intensity in a Warming California (1/2025)
- Skillful Empirical Prediction of High-Impact Temperature Deviations (1/2020)
- Role of Unforced Multidecadal Variability on 21st Century Surface Temperature Projections (1/2012)
- An Evaluation of Surface Temperature Variability in CMIP5 Simulations (1/2012)
- Assessing Inter- to Multi-Decadal Variability in Climate Models (1/2011)
American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting
- Wind and Solar Droughts over Western North America (12/2020)
- Teleconnections' Influence on Wind Power over Western North America (presented by advisee Kyle Bergerson, 12/2020)
- Skillful Empirical Prediction of High-Impact Temperature Deviations (12/2019)
- Net Costs Associated with Various Temperature Stabilization Targets under Heightened Estimates of Economic Damage from Climate Change (12/2018)
- Change in the Magnitude and Mechanisms of Global Temperature Variability with Warming (12/2017)
- The Necessity of Cloud Feedback for a Basin-Scale Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (presented by second author Susan Lozier, 12/2016)
- Unforced Surface Air Temperature Anomalies and Their Opposite Relationship with the TOA Energy Imbalance at Local and Global Scales (12/2015)
- Regions of Significant Influence on Unforced Global Mean Surface Air Temperature Variability in Climate Models (12/2014)
- Global Temperature Change Associated with Unforced Top-of-Atmosphere Net Radiation Variability (12/2013)
- Past Unforced Surface Temperature Variability and its Implication on Contemporary Climate Change (12/2012)
- Role of Unforced Multidecadal Variability on 21st Century Surface Temperature Projections (12/2011)
- Assessing Inter- to Multi-Decadal Variability in Climate Models (12/2010)
19th International European Forum (Igls-Forum) on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks (2/2024)
- The Social Feedback Loop that Puts Blinders on Climate Science
25th Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Science Team Meeting (4/2016)
- Unforced Surface Air Temperature Variability and its Contrasting Relationship with the Anomalous TOA Energy Flux at Local and Global Spatial Scales
World Climate Research Programme Workshop on CMIP5 Model Data Analysis (3/2012)
- An Evaluation of Unforced Multidecadal Surface Temperature Variability Present in CMIP5 Models
- Unforced Multidecadal Surface Temperature Variability in Observations and its Implications on 20th/21st Century Climate Change
CLIVAR Workshop: Using Paleo-Climate Model/Data Comparisons to Constrain Future Projections (3/2012)
- Unforced Multidecadal Surface Temperature Variability in Observations and its Implications on 20th/21st Century Climate Change

Invited Talks: Scientific and Policy Audiences

SRM360 Panel on Wildfires, Climate Risk & Solar Geoengineering (8/2025)
Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Ocean and Climate Physics Seminar (10/2024)
- Do Climate Adaptation Strategies Get Enough Attention? The Case of Wildfires in California
City College of New York, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Seminar (10/2024)
- Do Climate Adaptation Strategies Get Enough Attention? The Case of Wildfires in California
United States Congressional Western Caucus Briefing on Fuels Reduction for Wildfire Mitigation and NEPA Reform (7/2024)
The Breakthrough Dialogue (6/2024)
- On Climatism
ConservAmerica Webinar (11/2023)
- Strategies for Effective Wildfire Management
California Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety Scoping Meeting (7/2023)
- Climate Change and Fire Risk-Consequence Modeling
UC Berkeley Science Communication Lecture (11/2022)
- Climate Communication in an Era of Extremes
California Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety, Wildfire Risk Modeling Working Group (8/2022)
- Climate Driven Risk of Extreme Wildfire Behavior in California
University of Rhode Island Graduate School of Oceanography Seminar (2/2021)
- Meteorology and Climatology of Wind and Solar Power Droughts over Western North America
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Physical Oceanography Seminar (1/2021)
- Meteorology and Climatology of Wind and Solar Power Droughts over Western North America
CSU-BW: Climate Change and Water (12/2019)
- An Empirical Methodology that Forecasts Deviations in the Distributions of Land Temperatures on Seasonal Timescales that Impact Agricultural Productivity, Outdoor Labor Productivity, Electricity Demand, and Human Mortality
Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) Meetup at PayPal HQ (6/2018)
- Combining Physical and Statistical Models in Order to Narrow Uncertainty in Projected Global Warming
Stanford University Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Systems Colloquium (1/2018)
- Combining Physical and Statistical Models in Order to Narrow Uncertainty in Projected Global Warming
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Seminar Series (8/2017)
- Change in the Magnitude and Mechanisms of Global Temperature Variability with Warming
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Climate and Weather Seminar Series (2/2017)
- Change in the Magnitude and Mechanisms of Global Temperature Variability with Warming
Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford University (1/2017)
- Do Propagation of Error Calculations Invalidate Global Climate Model Projections?
NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Seminars
- Unforced Surface Air Temperature Variability and its Contrasting Relationship with the Anomalous TOA Energy Flux at Local and Global Spatial Scales (7/2016)
- Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Feedbacks in the Context of Unforced Interdecadal Temperature Variability (7/2014)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (11/2015)
- Unforced Surface Temperature Variability and its Relationship with the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Budget
Princeton / GFDL Public Seminar (6/2015)
- Unforced Surface Temperature Variability and its Relationship with the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Balance in CMIP5 Models
Duke University Seminars
- Magnitude and Mechanisms of Unforced Global Mean Surface Air Temperature Variability (2/2015)
- Regions of Significant Influence on Unforced Global Mean Surface Air Temperature Variability in Climate Models (12/2014)
- Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Contribution to Unforced Decadal Global Temperature Variability in Climate Models (3/2014)
- Unforced Surface Temperature Variability in Observations and its Implication on Contemporary Climate Change (10/2012)
San José State University Seminars
- Unforced Surface Temperature Variability in Observations and its Implication on Contemporary Climate Change (3/2012)
- Reproduction of Intradecadal to Multidecadal Surface Temperature Variability in Radiatively Forced Coupled Climate Models (3/2012)
- The State of Climate Science: From Recent Observations to 'Climategate' (4/2010), viewable in three parts (1, 2, 3)
Atmospheric Sciences Symposium at UC Berkeley (2/2012)
- Role of Unforced Multidecadal Variability on 21st Century Surface Temperature Projections
NASA Langley Research Center Intern Presentations (8/2007)
- The Saharan Air Layer's Interaction with Tropical Waves during the NAMMA Time Period
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Intern Presentations (8/2006)
- The Calibration of Water Vapor Profiles Produced from LIDAR Instrumentation

Outreach: Talks for a General Audience

Sonoma Valley Authors Festival (5/2025)
- A Critical Look at Climate Catastrophism: Striving for a Clearer Understanding of Climate Risks
Private Briefing for **** ***** on Economic Impacts of Climate Change (10/2024)
FireSafe Council of Santa Cruz County Meeting (8/2024)
- Economic Costs and Benefits of Fuel Reduction in California
Johns Hopkins University Energy Policy and Climate Program Seminar (2/2024)
- Does High Profile Science Tell the Full Story on the Climate Problem?
Wilfrid Laurier University (2/2024)
- The Social Feedback Loop that Puts Blinders on Climate Science
Middlebury College: Has Climate Science Become Distorted by Politics? (11/2023)
- The Social Feedback Loop that Puts Blinders on Climate Science
The Manhattan Institute (8/2023)
- Lunch and Learn on Contemporary Climate Science
Johns Hopkins Foreign Affairs Symposium (3/2023)
- Debate: Climate Change will Cause a Substantial Increase in Forced Migration over Time
The Politics and Markets Project at the University of Rochester (3/2023)
- Panel: Will Helping the Environment Hurt the Economy?
The Sequoias Portola Valley Education Seminar (12/2020)
- Climate Change in California and its Effects on Wildfire
San José City Town Hall: Wildfire Safety in the Times of Climate Change (10/2020)
- Connection between Climate Change and California Fires
8th Annual West Valley College Stewardship Symposium (4/2020)
- How Climate Change Affects Fires in California
Earth Day's 50th Anniversary: Pandemic & Climate Disruption, Reporting and Communicating Global Threats to Humanity (4/2020)
Climate Emergency Response Town Hall (8/2018)
- The Leverage of the Current Moment on the Long-Term Trajectory of the Climate
Pinewood School, Los Altos, CA (4/2018)
- Global Warming: Science and Solutions
Roosevelt School, Redwood City, CA (10/2017)
- Human Influence on the Global Climate
Quarry Lane School, Dublin, CA (9/2017)
- STEM Day 2017: Math Models and Climate Change
San José People's Climate March (4/2017)
- Defending Science at the People's Climate March
Washington Latin Public Charter School (5/2016)
- Ask a Climate Scientist Anything
Woods Charter School, Environmental Science Guest Speaker (2/2014)
- Global Temperature Variability and 'the Pause'
Environmental Resources Management (ERM) Seminar (12/2013)
- The Science behind Climate Change: What We Know and What We Don't Know in 2013
Bay Area Earth Science Institute: Global Warming and our Carbon Footprint
- Global Warming: Topical Aspects of the Science Presented in FAQ Form (7/2011)
- The State of Climate Science: From Recent Observations to 'Climategate' (3/2010)

Media: Mentions, Contributions, and Interviews

On Prediction Markets for Weather, Climate, and Risk Transfer

Bloomberg: Brokerage Turns to Prediction Markets to Price Hurricane Risks (10/2026)
Business Insurance: Prediction Markets Gain Role in Risk Transfer (10/2026)
John Lothian News: Prediction Markets Beat Weather Models in Temperature Study, Interactive Brokers' Brown Says (10/2026)
Artemis: Reask to Provide Settlement Data for Interactive Brokers' ForecastEx Live Hurricane Contracts (10/2026)
The Wall Street Journal: Kalshi and the Weather Co. Join Forces on Climate Trades, citing ForecastEx accuracy analysis (8/2026)
Bloomberg: Weather Prediction Markets Are Booming: Can They Improve Forecasts? (4/2026)
Carrier Management: Predicting the Insurability of Prediction Markets (3/2026)
Risk Market News, Risky Science podcast: Rolling the Odds: How Prediction Markets Are Pricing and Hedging Weather Risk (2/2026)
Artemis: Innovating Hedging and Risk Transfer with Forecast Contracts: Patrick Brown, Interactive Brokers (1/2026)

Podcasts and Video

IBKR Campus video: Why Natural Disasters Are Getting More Expensive (7/2026, with J. Yendrey and D. McGowan)
Confessions of a Market Maker podcast (6/2026)
IBKR Cents of Security podcast: Disaster Risk: Hazard × Exposure × Vulnerability (12/2025)
IBKR Cents of Security podcast: Exploring Climate Change's Impact on Global Agriculture and Food Security (10/2025)
PBS Energy Switch: Extreme Weather, Part 1 and Part 2 (10/2025)
Video lectures on untrustworthy scientific claims and prediction markets (10/2025, 7/2025)
IBKR podcast: Can You Weather the Bet? (7/2025)
Challenging Climate: Patrick Brown on Extreme Weather and the Obvious Climate Strategy
Hubwonk by the Pioneer Institute: Climate Death Toll: Will a Warming World Overwhelm Human Resiliency?
Big Conversations with Mike Lee: The Global Warming Debate: Should Poor Nations Continue to Use Fossil Fuels for Development?
The Glenn Show: Costs Now, Possible Benefits for Our Grandkids
The Detail Podcast: How Bad Is Climate Change?
Americans for Nuclear Energy Podcast: Bridging the Political Divide on Climate Science
Nature Podcast: Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide
Radio Ecoshock: Science of the Nasty Future and Will Climate Damage Slow Down the Killer Economy?
Radio NZ, Checkpoint: New Study Puts Climate Change Projections in Doubt
Radio WFHB: Eco Feature
BBC Radio: Climate Change in 2020 and California Wildfires: Climate Change vs. Forest Management
KPFA Upfront: Wildfire Season 2021

Television

CNBC Power Lunch: How Researchers Are Using A.I. to Predict Wildfire Danger
CNN, United Shades of America: California Wildfires
BBC World News TV: 2022 UK Heatwave; Climate Change and Wildfires
Euronews Tonight: Climate Crisis
StosselTV: Climate Censors
ABC7 News San Francisco
- CA Households Could Prevent Blackouts by Reducing Energy Use by 25%, Expert Says
- 2022 Wildfire Season
- Air Quality Dramatically Worsens in the Bay Area
- Heatwave, 9/6/2022 (two segments)
NBC Bay Area
- Why Wildfire Fuels Matter More in a Warming Climate
- Climate in Crisis: AI and Wildfire Detection
CBS News San Francisco
Fox 2 News San Francisco, NBC Sacramento, and San José Mercury News: Heatwave, 9/6/2022
KRON 4: Expert Says Climate Change, Human Behavior Responsible for Historic California Wildfires and San José's Water System Threatened by Climate Change
KSBW: Forecasting Our Future: Climate and Weather Tell 2 Different Stories
Univision: California Drought 2021

Print and Online

New York Times
LA Times: Could Better Brush Clearance Have Helped Slow the Spread of the Palisades Fire? (1/2025)
The Economist: How Will Calamity Change Los Angeles? (1/2025)
AP and ABC News: Smoke from Climate-Fueled Wildfires Contributed to Thousands of US Deaths over 15 Years, Study Says
New Scientist: Polar Vortex Is Set to Drive Record Cold Temperatures in the US and Extreme California Wildfires May Increase 57% Even with Low Emissions
The Johns Hopkins News-Letter: FAS and SNF Agora Host Debate on Responses to Climate Change with Amali Tower and Patrick Brown (3/2023)
WhoWhatWhy: At COP26, Nations Still Have to Do the Heavy Lifting to Mitigate Climate Change
MindBodyGreen: A Climate Expert on How the California Wildfires Got This Bad
San José Inside: Sheltering in Place Has Vastly Improved Region's Air Quality, but How Long Will It Last?
Quillette: Empiricism and Dogma: Why Left and Right Can't Agree on Climate Change
Yahoo! on a 2019 US heatwave: America Will Roast for 4 Days
Axios: Why Climate Change Is a Time Bomb
GreenBiz: Climate Scientists Can Take This One Action to Accelerate Solutions for Climate Change
MIT Technology Review: The World's Most Powerful Supercomputer Is Tailor Made for the AI Era
Gizmodo: The Most Insane Claims from the Climate Conspiracy Manual Just Sent to Thousands of Teachers
Duke Environment Magazine: The Communication Dilemma: PhD Student Patrick Brown Discovers Just How Quickly Climate Change Results Can Be Misconstrued

On the Free Press Essay Critique of High-Impact Scientific Publishing in Climate Science

I Left Out the Full Truth to Get My Climate Change Paper Published, The Free Press (9/2023)
Coverage
- The Wall Street Journal: How 'Preapproved Narratives' Corrupt Science
- The Atlantic: The Peer-Review Dilemma
- The Washington Post: What Happened When a Scientist Denounced His Own Climate Change Research
- The Los Angeles Times: A Climate Scientist Wanted to Start a Debate in Academia. He Set Off a Bigger Firestorm
- Discussed in U.S. Senate Committee on the Budget hearing: Bottlenecks and Backlogs: How Climate Change Threatens Supply Chains
Written interviews
- Tempi: A Terrible Climate (for Freedom of Research)
- Committee for Academic Freedom: Three Top Climate Scientists Make Claims of Bias at Major Scientific Institutions
- Committee for Academic Freedom: Publication, Conformity, Climate Science
Podcast interviews
- UnHerd, The Gist, Power Hungry, Andrew Revkin's Sustain What, The Tudor Dixon Podcast
Follow-ups
- Talk: The Social Feedback Loop that Puts Blinders on Climate Science
- Correcting the Record Regarding My Essay in The Free Press
- The Chronicle of Higher Education: Does High-Profile Climate Science Tell the Full Story?
- The Chronicle of Higher Education: Letter Critical of Essay on Climate Research Failed to Refute Anything

On Climate Change and Wildfires

Over 70 news stories on Brown et al. (2023), including
- NPR: Climate Change Makes Wildfires in California More Explosive
- Yahoo News: Climate Change Boosts Risk of Extreme Wildfires 25%: Study
- The Manila Times: Climate Change Raises Wildfire Risk by 25%
- The Japan Times: Climate Change Boosts Risk of Extreme Wildfires 25%, Study Finds
On the cost-effectiveness of fuel reduction (2024)
- Slow Boring: A Better Approach to Forest Management
- The Smokey Wire: Cost-Effectiveness of Large-Scale Fuel Reduction for Wildfire Mitigation in California
- Holt Hanley YouTube: Cost-Effectiveness of Large-Scale Fuel Reduction for Wildfire Mitigation in California
CBS Radio San Francisco: Ask an Expert: On Staying Better Protected, Prepared and Informed on Wildfires
A Big Sur Podcast: We Choose to Reduce Wildfire Danger, Not Because It Is Natural but Because It Is Good

On Earth's Energy Budget and Future Warming (Brown and Caldeira, 2017)

Washington Post: The Most Accurate Climate Change Models Predict the Most Alarming Consequences, Study Finds
Newsweek: Global Warming: Our Most Dire Predictions for the Future of the Planet Are Probably Right
The Guardian: Scientists Have Beaten Down the Best Climate Denial Argument
MIT Technology Review: Global Warming's Worst-Case Projections Look Increasingly Likely
Inside Climate News: The Most Accurate Climate Models Predict Greater Warming, Study Shows
Huffington Post: Decisions on Nuclear Plant Construction, FERC Directive Could Affect Grid's Generation Sources
Vice News: Earth Will Likely Be Much Warmer in 2100 Than We Anticipated, Scientists Warn
Business Insider: The World May Actually Get 15% Hotter Than Scientists Previously Thought by the End of the Century
Yahoo News: Global Warming: Our Most Dire Predictions for the Future of the Planet Are Probably Right
Futurism: The IPCC May Have Underestimated Future Warming Trends

On Changes in Global Temperature Variability with Warming

Science Daily: Warmer World May Bring More Local, Less Global, Temperature Variability
Science Newsline: Warmer World May Bring More Local, Less Global, Temperature Variability
Phys.org: Warmer World May Bring More Local, Less Global, Temperature Variability
Nature Climate Change: Climate Variability: Picking Apart Climate Models

On the Stability of Unforced Global Temperature

SciWorks Radio: Understanding Human-Driven Climate Change
TechTimes: Long-Term Global Warming Not Unpredictable, Needs External Drivers: Study
Christian Science Monitor: Did the Climate Spin Out of Control on Its Own?
NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory News: Long-Term Global Warming Needs External Drivers
The Economic Times: Global Warming Not Driven by Natural Forces: Study
Duke Chronicle: Researchers Work with NASA to Explain Causes of Global Warming

On the Pace of Global Warming over the Beginning of the 21st Century

On the Origin and Causes of Unforced Variability in Climate Models

Science Daily: Climate Models Disagree on Why Temperature 'Wiggles' Occur
Science World Report: Climate Models Conflict When It Comes to Explaining Temperature 'Wiggles'
Reporting Climate Science: Climate Models Disagree on Why Temperature Wiggles Occur
Space Daily: Climate Models Disagree on Why Temperature Wiggles Occur
Neue Zürcher Zeitung (Swiss newspaper)
Climate Lab Book: Top-of-Atmosphere Contribution to Unforced Variability in Global Temperature
And Then There's Physics: Oh No, Now I Need to Eat My Words!

Teaching Experience

Johns Hopkins University, Energy Policy and Climate Program, Advanced Academic Programs
- Adjunct Faculty (Lecturer), Spring 2022 – Fall 2025
  - 425.602, Science of Climate Change and Its Impact
San José State University
- Assistant Professor, Fall 2019 – Spring 2022
  - Meteorology 168, Global Climate Change (5 semesters)
  - Meteorology 12, Global Warming: Science and Solutions (3 semesters)
  - Meteorology 171, Synoptic Weather Analysis and Forecasting (2 semesters)
  - Meteorology 116, Economic Impact of Extreme Weather Under Climate Change (1 semester)
- Instructor, August 2010 – June 2012
  - Meteorology 12, Global Warming: Science and Solutions (sole instructor, 4 semesters)
  - Meteorology 173, Global Climate Modeling (lab instructor, 1 semester)
Duke Kunshan University (Kunshan, Jiangsu Province, China)
- Instructor, Fall 2015
  - Earth and Ocean Sciences 366, Climate Change and Society in China
Duke University
- Teaching Assistant, August 2012 – December 2016
  - Earth and Ocean Sciences 511, The Climate System (2 semesters)
  - Earth and Ocean Sciences 508, Climate History
  - Earth and Ocean Sciences 365, Weather and Climate
  - Earth and Ocean Sciences 355, Global Warming
  - Earth and Ocean Sciences 101, The Dynamic Earth
  - Earth and Ocean Sciences 12, The History of Life and Earth

Advising and Mentorship

Interactive Brokers
- Research intern supervisor
  - Josh Hemmerling, 2026 – Present
Johns Hopkins University
- Master's capstone advisor
  - DeAnna Colglazier, M.A., 2025
  - Brody Droppleman, M.A., 2025
  - Amber Copeland, M.A., 2024
  - David J. Blake, M.A., 2024, The Future of Climate Change Impacts on the Aviation Industry: A Prediction
  - Fay M. H. Struijk, M.A., 2024, Can Formula One Exist in a Net Zero World?
  - Erica Turner, M.A., 2023, The Potential for Hazardous Fuel Reduction Treatments to Produce Net Economic Benefits in California
San José State University
- Project scientist advisor
  - Pardeep Pall, 2021
- Master's thesis advisor
  - Howard Tang, M.S., 2023
  - Holt S. Hanley, M.S., 2022, Environmental Influences on Large Daily Wildfire Growth in California. doi: 10.31979/etd.5znn-tm8p
  - Daniel Sunvold, M.S., 2022, An Empirical Assessment of Environmental Variable Combinations for Use in Fire Weather Forecasts. doi: 10.31979/etd.chd6-2sks
  - Kyle J. Bergerson, M.S., 2021, The Influence of Teleconnection Patterns on Renewable Energy Resources. doi: 10.31979/etd.g7v8-qp25
- Master's thesis committee member
  - Scott Purdy, M.S., 2020, Fire Weather Associated with the 2019 Northern California Public Safety Power Shutoff Events. doi: 10.31979/etd.w9ez-52xy
- Undergraduate senior thesis advisor
  - Cameron Landfield, B.S., 2022
  - Juan Zuniga, B.S., 2020
- Undergraduate research advisor
  - Howard Tang

Service and Review

University Service, San José State University

College of Science Curriculum Committee, 2019 – 2022
Undergraduate Major Advisor, Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, 2020
Hiring committee, climate and air quality, 2021
Hiring committee, wildfire science, 2020

Assessment Reports

Expert Reviewer, IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group I
Expert Reviewer, IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C

Scholarly Journals

Nature; Nature Climate Change; Nature Communications; Nature Geoscience; Journal of Climate; Climate Dynamics; Geophysical Research Letters; Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres; Climatic Change; Earth's Future; Earth and Space Science; Earth System Dynamics; Global and Planetary Change; Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology; Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics; Oceanography; Fire; International Journal of Wildland Fire; Health Science Reports; International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Climate Feedback (reviewer profile)

Outreach: Digital Education Material

Awards

2024 Johns Hopkins Energy Policy and Climate Program Teaching Award
2021 2nd place, National Forecasting Competition, Faculty Category (New Orleans)
2016 Duke Graduate School Fellowship for Outstanding Performance
2015 Nicholas School of the Environment Dean's Award for the Best Graduate Student Manuscript
2015 Climanosco Launch Challenge, manuscript placed 2nd overall in international competition

Updated November 2, 2026